Spain’s latest election polls show a PP lead in Votendi’s weighted average, alongside a wide disagreement between individual surveys. As checked on 7 November, the Spain polling hub puts Partido Popular at 30.7%, PSOE at 26.7% and Vox at 18.9%. The four-point PP advantage is a snapshot of the published dataset, not a forecast of the result or a parliamentary majority.
Two newly verified additions sharpen that distinction. More in Common puts PP and PSOE only 0.7 percentage points apart; Target Point gives PP a 6.3-point lead. Their fieldwork took place at different times, and their estimates should not be read as a single chronological story about voters moving between parties.
The latest published surveys, side by side
| Pollster / publication | Published | PP | PSOE | Vox | PP–PSOE gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celeste Tel / Onda Cero | 6 Nov | 31.4% | 25.7% | 19.2% | PP +5.7 |
| SW Demoscopia / La Séptima | 5 Nov | 29.1% | 29.8% | 16.0% | PSOE +0.7 |
| More in Common | 3 Nov | 28.3% | 27.6% | 20.8% | PP +0.7 |
| Target Point / El Debate | 2 Nov | 31.8% | 25.5% | 19.9% | PP +6.3 |
| Sigma Dos | 2 Nov | 31.1% | 24.6% | 19.3% | PP +6.5 |
Why the two new additions tell different stories
More in Common’s October Pulso electoral, released on 3 November, used 2,210 online interviews conducted on 21–25 October. Alongside the narrow PP–PSOE gap, it puts Vox at 20.8%, Frente Amplio at 7.8%, Podemos at 2.6% and SALF at 2.4%. These are modelled vote estimates rather than unadjusted answers to a voting-intention question.
Target Point’s survey for El Debate interviewed 1,024 online panellists from the evening of 28 October to the morning of 30 October. It reports PP at 31.8%, PSOE at 25.5%, Vox at 19.9%, Frente Amplio at 6.6%, Podemos at 2.4% and SALF at 2.6%. Its stated population excludes Ceuta and Melilla.
The gap between these polls is analytically important, but it does not by itself measure a swing. Different interview periods, samples, weighting choices and vote-estimation models can all contribute. A stronger test of change would compare repeated surveys from the same organisation, then check whether other pollsters show a similar movement.
The most recent releases still need methodological context
Celeste Tel’s 6 November release gives PP a 5.7-point lead. Its reported 1,100 interviews and 29 October–3 November fieldwork remain provisional because the original technical sheet was unavailable for verification. The publisher lists PP and UPN separately, at 31.4% and 0.4%; combining them would change the label being compared.
The 5 November SW Demoscopia tracker instead places PSOE 0.7 points ahead. Its reported 3,500 interviews are accumulated, with a reported end date of 4 November; the precise start and interview mode remain unverified. Successive rolling releases can share respondents and should not be treated as wholly independent samples.
A separate SW Demoscopia release dated 6 November and the SocioMétrica release dated 1 November remain under editorial review and are excluded from the hub’s published average. The unresolved issues concern fieldwork information and comparability. This article does not treat those pending records as additional confirmed observations.
New Poliwave seat simulation: PP and Vox on 201 seats
Update, 7 November 2026. A new Poliwave Europe post models the latest Celeste-Tel polling into a national Congress seat allocation: PP 134, PSOE 104 and Vox 67. That would put PP and Vox together on 201 of the 350 seats, 25 above the 176-seat majority threshold. It is an external modelled scenario, not a counted result, a new fieldwork survey, or a Votendi forecast.
| Party / label in Poliwave post | Modelled Congress seats |
|---|---|
| PP | 134 |
| PSOE | 104 |
| Vox | 67 |
| Frente Amplio | 11 |
| ERC | 8 |
| EH Bildu | 7 |
| Junts | 6 |
| Front Valencià (FV) | 3 |
| Podemos | 1 |
| Other (source category) | 9 |
| Total | 350 |
This is a useful second projection source to compare against the existing Sigma Dos national and province-level seat projections. They must remain separate because they use different inputs and methodologies. Poliwave’s publicly indexed main projection page was still labelled 18 October 2026 when checked, so its older province-by-province figures cannot be presented as the breakdown of this 7 November post. The new post supplies a map image but not a fully verified, machine-readable 52-constituency allocation. Votendi has therefore not substituted that older map data into its provincial table.
What the average can—and cannot—tell us
The hub now contains 11 published polls. Its average weights surveys by recency, sample size, pollster grade, methodology and editorial weight. Adding a previously missing survey can alter the combined estimate even when no new interviews have taken place. The 7 November database update should therefore not be mistaken for a measured change in opinion on 7 November.
PP’s position in the average and Vox’s substantial vote share make the distribution of support on the right a central question. Yet a national sum cannot establish control of Congress. Spain allocates seats across constituencies; the territorial distribution of votes and competing lists matters. Our guide to Spain’s electoral system explains why national percentages cannot simply be converted into the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority.
The same caution applies on the left. Frente Amplio, Sumar and territorial coalition labels are not interchangeable across releases. Adding every displayed label together risks counting overlapping electoral options twice.
For the next update, the most useful evidence will be fresh fieldwork with complete technical sheets, repeated measurements within the same polling series and consistent coalition definitions. Follow the live Spain hub for individual records and the Votendi methodology for how averages are constructed. Our previous Sigma Dos analysis provides context for that survey.
Data checked 7 November 2026. Sources: the linked pollster/publication materials and Votendi poll records. Figures are voting estimates, not election results. Votendi does not publish its own seat forecast in this analysis; Poliwave’s separately labelled external scenario is shown above.
