Spain’s Partido Popular has widened its lead over PSOE to 6.5 percentage points in a new Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo, as the survey’s seat estimates keep a PP–Vox majority within reach. PP stands at 31.1%, PSOE at 24.6% and Vox at 19.3%.
The survey, published on 2 November, interviewed 2,505 eligible voters on 29–30 October using telephone and online methods. It is now included in Votendi’s Spain election tracker.
PP gains as PSOE falls in the same pollster’s series
Compared with Sigma Dos’s 26 October publication, PP rises by 0.5 percentage points, PSOE falls by 1.5 and Vox drops by 0.6. PP’s lead over PSOE therefore expands from 4.5 to 6.5 points.
| Party or poll label | 26 October release | 2 November release | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 30.6% | 31.1% | +0.5 pp |
| PSOE | 26.1% | 24.6% | −1.5 pp |
| Vox | 19.9% | 19.3% | −0.6 pp |
| Frente Amplio | 7.4% | 7.1% | −0.3 pp |
| Podemos | 2.8% | 1.9% | −0.9 pp |
These movements describe two published estimates. They do not establish that each change is statistically significant or identify why voters’ preferences may have changed.
What the seat estimates suggest
Sigma Dos projects 133–139 seats for PP and 63–69 for Vox. Adding those published ranges gives 196–208 seats, above the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-seat Congress. This arithmetic is an indication of coalition potential, not a joint confidence interval or a prediction that the parties would form a government.
The seat ranges belong to Sigma Dos. Votendi does not convert national vote shares into an independent seat forecast.
One poll and the broader tracker tell different stories
After this addition, Votendi’s weighted average of seven published surveys stands at PP 31.4%, PSOE 25.9% and Vox 19.2%. The average combines different fieldwork periods and two polling organisations; it should not be presented as a second reading of the same survey.
The latest poll also reports Frente Amplio at 7.1% and Podemos at 1.9%. Front Valencià is recorded separately at 0.9%. Those labels are preserved rather than automatically merged with Sumar or Compromís in earlier surveys.
How to read the evidence
The full individual poll record contains the reported vote shares and methodology. Sigma Dos’s original release is the primary source. The poll is a campaign snapshot, not an election result.
Tracker figures checked on 5 November 2026. Featured image: AI-generated editorial illustration.
