A new 40dB. survey puts Spain’s Partido Popular on 31.9% and PSOE on 29.9%, a two-point gap ahead of the 29 November general election. But a parliamentary projection published by EL PAÍS gives PP and Vox a combined 190 seats — above the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
Madrid, 9 November 2026. The latest national survey by 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER shows the governing Socialists narrowing their deficit to the conservative Partido Popular. Vox is estimated at 18.0%, after a decline from the previous 40dB. measurement.
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Latest 40dB. vote estimates
| Party / poll label | Vote estimate |
|---|---|
| Partido Popular (PP) | 31.9% |
| PSOE | 29.9% |
| Vox | 18.0% |
| Frente Amplio | 5.0% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF) | 2.0% |
| Podemos | 1.2% |
| Other parties and blank votes | 12.0% |
Source: 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER; published 9 November. Online interviews conducted 2–4 November 2026, sample 2,000.
Compared with its survey published on 9 October, 40dB. places PSOE up from 28.1% to 29.9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points. PP remains at 31.9%. Vox slips from 18.9% to 18.0%, while Frente Amplio is down from 5.3% to 5.0% and Podemos from 2.3% to 1.2%.
These figures compare two surveys from the same organisation. The earlier October flash survey used 800 interviews, compared with 2,000 in November. Not every movement between rounded estimates necessarily represents a statistically significant change in public opinion.
PP and Vox: 190 projected seats in the EL PAÍS breakdown
Spain elects 350 members of the Congress of Deputies; an absolute majority requires 176 seats. National vote estimates and parliamentary seats are not interchangeable because seats are allocated across 52 constituencies.
| Party / grouping | Projected Congress seats |
|---|---|
| PP | 129 |
| PSOE | 119 |
| Vox | 61 |
| Frente Amplio | 10 |
| Podemos | 0 |
| Other parties | 31 |
In the central estimates reported by EL PAÍS, PP receives 129 seats and Vox 61. Their combined 190 seats are 14 above the absolute-majority threshold. PSOE receives 119, Frente Amplio ten and Podemos none; other parties account for 31.
Source discrepancy: Cadena SER’s accompanying report lists 131 PP seats, implying 192 for PP and Vox together. This article uses the 129-seat PP figure published by EL PAÍS. These figures are 40dB.’s external parliamentary projection, not election results or Votendi’s independent forecast. Neither seat scenario establishes that any coalition agreement has been reached.
A narrower PP–PSOE gap does not settle the parliamentary arithmetic
The new poll highlights two different questions: which of Spain’s largest parties attracts the most votes and which parliamentary groupings might command enough seats to form a government. Even though the PP–PSOE gap has fallen to two points in this survey, the 40dB. allocation still places PP and Vox above the 176-seat threshold.
The distinction is especially relevant to the parties to PSOE’s left. Frente Amplio polls at 5.0% and is assigned ten seats in the EL PAÍS projection. Podemos is measured separately at 1.2% and assigned none. Different organisations may group national and territorial coalition labels differently, so those figures should not simply be merged with older Sumar polls or added again to their constituent lists.
How this compares with other November polls
Votendi’s 7 November analysis of Spanish polling highlighted substantial differences between survey organisations. More in Common put PP only 0.7 points ahead of PSOE; Target Point reported a 6.3-point PP lead; a SW Demoscopia reading placed PSOE 0.7 points ahead.
40dB.’s new two-point gap is another data point, not a replacement for the weighted average in Votendi’s Spain election hub. Fieldwork periods, samples, estimation models and coalition labels can all produce differences between polls. Readers should distinguish a shift within one pollster’s series from a change in an aggregate based on several pollsters.
Fieldwork during the Urda rail disaster aftermath
Interviews took place from 2 to 4 November, amid public debate following the rail disaster near Urda that killed 69 people. The latter part of the fieldwork also followed the resignation of Transport Minister Óscar Puente. The PSOE estimate increased compared with the preceding 40dB. survey, but that does not by itself prove how the tragedy affected voters or isolate the impact of any single event.
What to watch before 29 November
Further surveys can clarify whether the narrowing gap is also visible in other polling series. Equally important are the distribution of votes across Spain’s constituencies and the final composition of Parliament. A national two-point lead is not a seat forecast.
Votendi tracks individual polls, its weighted polling average and external seat projections as different datasets. The November 9 40dB. figures are an individual poll, and the seat breakdown above remains the pollster’s modelling rather than a Votendi prediction.
Sources and methodology
40dB. survey commissioned by EL PAÍS and Cadena SER; 2,000 online interviews (CAWI), fieldwork 2–4 November 2026, published 9 November. Read the original reporting: EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. The numbers are estimates of electoral support, not counted votes. The usual ±2.2-percentage-point figure for a simple random sample of 2,000 is only a theoretical benchmark; actual survey uncertainty depends on the design and weighting.
