Seven U.S. Senate races were rated Toss Up by the Cook Political Report on October 6, 2026. Votendi compares its October 13 weighted polling averages for Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, Iowa and Kansas, explains why the surveys are not directly interchangeable, and links each state to its updated tracker. These dated polling measurements are not forecasts of election outcomes.
- Three findings from Votendi’s October 13 Senate polling snapshot
- At a glance: seven battleground Senate races
- 1. Texas — James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: a competitive race in a Republican stronghold
- 2. Ohio — Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted: an attempted political comeback
- 3. Michigan — Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: the Democratic seat that must be defended
- 4. Alaska — Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: ranked-choice voting changes the calculation
- 5. Maine — Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins: experience and political independence
- 6. Iowa — Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: an open seat and agricultural economics
- 7. Kansas — Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: a rarely competitive Senate state
- Outside the toss-up group: three races that affect the Senate arithmetic
- How four net seats would change control
- What to watch before November 3
- Sources and methodology
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats hold 45, while two independents caucus with the Democrats, creating a 53–47 Republican majority. To reach 51 seats, the Democratic-aligned caucus needs a net gain of four. A 50–50 tie would leave the Republican vice president able to break ties.
The seven Toss Up seats identified by Cook Political Report as of October 6 are Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, Iowa and Kansas. Of these, Michigan is an open seat held by Democrats; the other six seats are held by Republicans. Votendi’s U.S. midterms hub follows these individual races alongside the national congressional ballot and the contest for the House.
Three findings from Votendi’s October 13 Senate polling snapshot
1. The seven seats have different implications for chamber control. Six were Republican-held and Michigan was the only Democratic-held seat in Cook’s October 6 Toss Up group. Losing or gaining a seat changes the net-seat arithmetic, but the race rating is an external assessment, not Votendi’s forecast.
2. The listed weighted averages are close, but that is not a shared probability. The difference between the two listed candidates ranges from 0.6 percentage points in Kansas to 3.3 in Ohio in this October 13 snapshot. Six rows show a higher Democratic average and one a higher Republican average. These are descriptive measurements from different survey sets, not outcomes or comparable chances of winning.
3. Poll design matters as much as the headline number. Alaska’s ranked-choice election illustrates why direct two-candidate questions and multi-candidate first-choice questions cannot simply be mixed. Poll populations, fieldwork periods, undecided voters and timing differ across states.
At a glance: seven battleground Senate races
| State / updated tracker | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | D minus R (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico 47.1% |
Ken Paxton 45.7% |
+1.4 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 47.4% |
Jon Husted 44.1% |
+3.3 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 47.6% |
Mike Rogers 44.6% |
+3.0 |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 48.6% |
Dan Sullivan 47.1% |
+1.5 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 48.3% |
Susan Collins 46.0% |
+2.3 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek 45.8% |
Ashley Hinson 47.6% |
-1.8 |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton 46.4% |
Roger Marshall 45.8% |
+0.6 |
Data note: The figures above are frozen at the October 13, 2026 Votendi weighted-average snapshot. Positive D-minus-R values mean the listed Democratic average is numerically higher; negative values mean the Republican average is higher. Each state has different polls, samples and fieldwork windows. Differences are not probabilities, projections or election results. The Votendi methodology explains the approach, while each linked state tracker provides the latest available underlying poll records.
Absolute percentage-point difference only (scale 0–3.3 pp). Bar length does not indicate a chance of winning; each state uses its own set of polls.
1.4 pp
3.3 pp
3.0 pp
1.5 pp
2.3 pp
1.8 pp
0.6 pp
1. Texas — James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: a competitive race in a Republican stronghold
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and Donald Trump carried the state comfortably in 2024. The current contest nevertheless features a close series of surveys between Democratic state representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Talarico has highlighted public education, affordability, accountability and faith in public life. Paxton has focused on conservative priorities and his record as attorney general, while the race has also drawn attention to controversies surrounding his political career. The candidates present different approaches to the relationship between state and federal politics, and to the economic priorities of Texas families.
In a ReconMR/Siena survey conducted October 5–8, Talarico registered 48% to Paxton’s 44%, with a reported margin of error of ±4.4 points. Another recent Trafalgar survey showed a narrower gap; other polling has reported a tie. The differences are important: a close lead in one survey does not amount to a secure outcome. ReconMR/Siena survey details.
A third-party candidate, Libertarian Ted Brown, adds another variable when comparing head-to-head polls with full-ballot surveys. Turnout in urban, suburban and rural counties—and the willingness of voters to choose differently from their presidential ballot—will be closely examined.
Follow the Texas Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
2. Ohio — Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted: an attempted political comeback
Ohio’s special Senate election pits former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown against Republican incumbent Jon Husted, appointed to the vacancy created when JD Vance became vice president. The winner will serve the remainder of the Senate term.
Brown emphasizes labor, manufacturing and the economic security of working families. Husted campaigns on his governing record, conservative priorities and economic development. Their competing messages are particularly relevant in a state where industrial jobs, tariffs, energy costs and trade remain central issues.
Recent surveys have varied. A CNN poll showed Brown at 49% and Husted at 43%, while a co/efficient survey put Husted narrowly ahead. The Votendi average reviewed October 13 stands at 47.4% Brown to 44.1% Husted, but the divergence between pollsters illustrates the uncertainty.
Brown’s familiarity with Ohio voters and Husted’s incumbency make the race unusually candidate-focused. A shift of only a few percentage points in turnout could change the apparent picture substantially.
Follow the Ohio Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
3. Michigan — Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: the Democratic seat that must be defended
The retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters created an open-seat election in Michigan. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public-health official, faces former Republican congressman Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate contest.
El-Sayed has emphasized health care and economic inequality, while Rogers emphasizes national security, economic opportunity and his legislative experience. Michigan’s automotive industry, trade policy and union employment give the campaign an economic dimension distinct from many other states.
InsiderAdvantage found El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46% in its October 9–10 survey. Votendi’s weighted average stands at 47.6% to 44.6%. A separate Wedgewood Polls two-way question gave El-Sayed a six-point lead, but its results are not methodologically identical to surveys offering undecided responses.
The Senate arithmetic is especially important here: Michigan is the only Democratic-held seat in the Cook toss-up group. A Republican gain in Michigan would increase the number of Republican seats Democrats must flip elsewhere to control the chamber.
Follow the Michigan Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
4. Alaska — Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: ranked-choice voting changes the calculation
Alaska’s Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola. Sullivan highlights energy, national security and his record in the Senate. Peltola emphasizes the state’s distinctive local interests, fisheries, costs and economic issues.
A recent InsiderAdvantage head-to-head question placed Peltola at 50% and Sullivan at 48%. On Votendi, the weighted two-candidate average is 48.6% to 47.1%. The small difference alone cannot capture the full complexity of the election.
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in the general election. Voters rank multiple candidates, and later rounds can redistribute preferences. Another candidate with the surname Sullivan is also on the ballot. In the same InsiderAdvantage poll, the multi-candidate first-choice question produced a different set of numbers from the direct head-to-head question.
That is why the two polling questions must never be combined as independent measurements of the same ballot choice. Transfers, exhausted ballots and voter rankings may all matter in a close election. AP reporting on the Alaska contest.
Follow the Alaska Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
5. Maine — Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins: experience and political independence
Republican Senator Susan Collins has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to win statewide in Maine, including in years when the state supported Democratic presidential nominees. In 2026 she faces Democrat Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate with a background in labor politics.
Collins emphasizes her Senate experience, federal funding and a political identity that sometimes differs from national Republican positions. Jackson focuses on workers, economic affordability and questions surrounding federal policy. Health care, abortion rights and Maine’s independent voters are central themes.
Rasmussen Reports found Jackson ahead 49% to 47% in its October 5–8 survey, while a Washington Post/Schar School poll recorded 50% to 46%. Votendi’s October 13 weighted average was 48.3% Jackson to 46.0% Collins. The differences should not be treated as an election result.
Maine also uses ranked-choice voting for federal general elections. Collins’s electoral history offers context for understanding the state, but it is not a substitute for contemporary polling or the final count.
Follow the Maine Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
6. Iowa — Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: an open seat and agricultural economics
With Republican Senator Joni Ernst retiring, Iowa voters will elect a new senator. The candidates are Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, and Republican Ashley Hinson, a member of Congress.
Agriculture is central to the race. Corn and soybean markets, international trade, tariff policy, input costs and rural health services are significant issues across the state. Turek emphasizes affordability and access to care, while Hinson highlights her congressional work, agriculture and Republican economic policies.
An Emerson survey conducted October 5–6 found Hinson at 47% to Turek’s 45%. Other recent surveys have produced a different ordering. Votendi’s October 13 weighted average was 47.6% Hinson to 45.8% Turek. Both the small margin and different survey populations limit the certainty of any reading.
Iowa voted clearly Republican in the 2024 presidential election, but a Senate race may attract a different electorate and more candidate-specific decisions. Differences in turnout between rural counties, smaller cities and the Des Moines metropolitan area warrant close attention.
Follow the Iowa Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
7. Kansas — Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: a rarely competitive Senate state
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the 1930s. Yet incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a close polling environment against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor without prior elected office.
Hamilton speaks frequently about health-care costs, community concerns and economic security. Marshall points to his record as a physician and senator, conservative policy positions and federal economic priorities. The Kansas City suburbs, agricultural economy and views about national politics are all relevant to the contest.
InsiderAdvantage’s October 9–10 survey found Hamilton at 48% and Marshall at 47%. Other recent polls have reported both narrow Democratic and narrow Republican leads. Votendi’s October 13 weighted average stands at 46.4% Hamilton to 45.8% Marshall. A margin of less than one point is particularly sensitive to sampling and turnout assumptions.
Cook moved Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up in its October 6 update. That change documents the competitiveness of current polling; it does not establish a forecast of who will win.
Follow the Kansas Senate polling average, latest surveys and poll details on Votendi →
Outside the toss-up group: three races that affect the Senate arithmetic
North Carolina. Democrat Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley for a Republican-held open seat. Cook rates this contest Likely Democratic rather than Toss Up. Two polls released October 13—SurveyUSA and Change Research—recorded Cooper at 54–40 and 50–40, respectively. This seat remains mathematically relevant because a change of party would contribute one net Democratic gain. North Carolina tracker →
Georgia. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins. A Trafalgar survey from October 7–9 recorded 51–43 for Ossoff. Georgia is a Democratic-held seat and part of the wider majority calculation even though Cook places it outside its Toss Up category. Georgia tracker →
New Hampshire. Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu are contesting the seat being vacated by Jeanne Shaheen. Cook’s October 6 update moved the contest to Lean Democratic. It remains a Democratic-held seat that must be considered in any balance-of-power arithmetic. New Hampshire tracker →
How four net seats would change control
Consider an illustrative conditional calculation, not a projection. If Democrats retain their current seats and capture North Carolina and Maine, the Democratic-aligned caucus would rise from 47 to 49 seats. It would still need a further two Republican-held seats to reach 51. If Republicans capture Michigan, Democrats would need an additional Republican-held pickup to offset that loss.
A 50–50 Senate would leave the Republican vice president with the power to break ties. That is why the combination of individual state outcomes matters more than any one national polling average.
What to watch before November 3
The final three weeks bring possible changes in turnout expectations, campaigns’ late advertising, candidate debates and new surveys. Economic concerns are shared nationally but take different forms across the battlegrounds: agricultural trade in Kansas and Iowa, manufacturing in Michigan and Ohio, local economic and fisheries interests in Alaska, and housing or health-care costs elsewhere.
Polling companies differ in interviewing methods, likely-voter screens, treatment of undecided voters and fieldwork dates. The very small leads shown in several states remain consistent with multiple possible outcomes. Votendi therefore distinguishes observed polling averages from external race ratings, and from actual certified results.
Want the updated numbers? This article preserves the October 13 snapshot; figures entered later can change the averages. Open the Votendi U.S. Midterms hub, then choose any of the state trackers linked in the table above for current polling data and individual survey details. Election Day is November 3, 2026. Compare fieldwork dates and survey populations before interpreting a change.
Sources and methodology
- Cook Political Report, Senate ratings updated October 6, 2026.
- Reuters, October 12, Senate battlegrounds, candidates and chamber arithmetic.
- Votendi U.S. Midterms hub and the seven individual contest pages linked throughout this article, weighted averages reviewed October 13.
- ReconMR/Siena Texas poll, fieldwork October 5–8.
- SurveyUSA/WRAL North Carolina poll and Change Research/Carolina Forward, both published October 13.
Editorial methodology: Latest polling figures reflect the specified survey and fieldwork dates. The Votendi averages are a point-in-time October 13 snapshot and may update as new polls are entered. The figures are measurements of respondents, not probabilities of victory. Candidate and race descriptions reflect reporting available at publication date.
