Four days before Serbia’s October 25 parliamentary election, betting and prediction markets have shifted since Votendi’s October 10 comparison. On Polymarket, the market price for Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia finishing first in parliamentary seats was about 69% during the October 21 check, compared with 61% in Votendi’s earlier snapshot. Serbian bookmaker Meridianbet has also raised the list’s vote-share betting threshold from 45.6% to 47.1%, and its seat threshold from 124.5 to 127.5.
These changes are observable market signals, not the results of opinion polls or an independent forecast of Sunday’s vote. Serbia’s surveys continue to tell different stories, including a newly published NSPM poll showing the Student List narrowly ahead.
Polymarket: October 10 versus October 21
In Votendi’s original October 10 analysis, a saved Polymarket snapshot showed 61% for United Serbia and 39% for Student List – Students Win in the market for which list would win the most National Assembly seats. The October 21 public market display showed approximately 69% and 31%, respectively.
| Election list | October 10 | October 21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vučić – United Serbia | 61% | 69% | +8 percentage points |
| Student List – Students Win | 39% | 31% | −8 percentage points |
Sources: Votendi’s October 10 snapshot; Polymarket, checked October 21. Prices fluctuate and may differ when readers open the market.
Cumulative trading volume rose from approximately $701,357 in the October 10 snapshot to more than $1.9 million in the October 21 display, or roughly 2.7 times the earlier figure. Higher trading volume shows increased activity, not necessarily a larger number of independent participants or more accurate pricing.
What the numbers do not mean: 69% and 31% are not projected vote shares. The market asks which list wins the largest number of seats; finishing first is distinct from obtaining an absolute majority or forming a government.
Meridianbet raises the vote-share line
Meridianbet publishes over/under betting lines for the percentage of votes each list receives. The bookmaker’s threshold for United Serbia has moved upward since Votendi’s first report, while its Student List threshold has remained unchanged.
| Electoral list | October 10 line | October 21 line | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vučić – United Serbia | 45.60% | 47.10% | +1.50 pp |
| Student List | 39.05% | 39.05% | Unchanged |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability | 3.95% | 3.25% | −0.70 pp |
Sources: Votendi, October 10; Meridianbet vote-share market, checked October 21.
The increase was gradual in publicly reported snapshots: 45.6% on October 10, 46.2% on October 18, and 47.1% on October 21. The middle observation comes from N1’s October 18 investigation.
At the October 21 check, Meridianbet quoted decimal odds of 1.75 on United Serbia exceeding the 47.1% line and 1.95 on finishing below it. Such a line is not a poll result or a statement that the list will win exactly 47.1%; the operator sets prices and incorporates a commercial margin.
Seat threshold crosses the 126-seat majority boundary
Serbia’s National Assembly has 250 seats, with 126 needed for an absolute majority. Meridianbet’s advertised over/under line for United Serbia has moved from 124.5 seats to 127.5 seats. That places the betting threshold on a different side of the parliamentary majority boundary from its October 10 position.
| Electoral list | October 10 line | October 21 line | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vučić – United Serbia | 124.5 seats | 127.5 seats | +3 seats |
| Student List | 105.5 seats | 105.5 seats | Unchanged |
Sources: October 10 comparison and Meridianbet’s seat market, checked October 21.
A 127.5-seat over/under line is not a forecast of an exact seat total, let alone proof that a majority will be secured. It is a betting threshold that can also reflect risk-management decisions and customer demand. Vote-share percentages cannot be translated mechanically into seats under Serbia’s proportional representation rules.
Latest NSPM poll offers a contrasting measurement
The latest NSPM survey, published October 20, gives the Student List 44.5% and United Serbia 42.7% in its reported voting-preference figures. NSPM’s September figures were 44.4% and 41.7%, respectively. The reported student advantage narrowed from 2.7 to 1.8 percentage points between these two survey releases.
| List | NSPM September | NSPM October 20 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Student List | 44.4% | 44.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Vučić – United Serbia | 41.7% | 42.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Student-list lead | 2.7 pp | 1.8 pp | −0.9 pp |
Source: Votendi’s NSPM survey report and its Serbia election data hub.
Publication dates are not the same as fieldwork dates. The newly released NSPM poll was conducted before its publication, so it should not be interpreted as a measurement of voter preferences during the final days before October 25.
Other organisations have reported substantially different numbers. Faktor Plus placed United Serbia at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1% in its September figures, while the earlier CRTA/Stanford Democracy Action Lab survey showed 44.9% for the Student List and 35.7% for SNS. Differences in fieldwork dates, sampling and vote-base definitions matter; the surveys should not be treated as directly interchangeable.
Votendi therefore presents individual Serbian polls with source context in the Serbia 2026 election hub rather than combining them into a proprietary polling average or election forecast.
Questions over the independence of bookmaker prices
Since Votendi’s October 10 analysis, scrutiny of domestic election betting markets has intensified. In an October 18 report, N1 quoted NSPM researcher Đorđe Vukadinović arguing that election betting offers in Serbia can serve political-marketing interests rather than reflecting purely independent market assessments.
N1 said Meridianbet had not responded to questions about how it sets the election lines by publication time. The outlet also examined historical links involving people associated with Meridianbet and the governing party. Those reported relationships and allegations warrant scrutiny but do not themselves establish that any current line was manipulated.
Polymarket and Meridianbet also operate differently. Polymarket prices tradeable contracts on a defined outcome. Meridianbet sets over/under lines and associated bookmaker odds. Neither should be presented as a representative poll of Serbian voters.
What changed in 11 days — and what has not
Between the October 10 and October 21 snapshots, Polymarket pricing moved by about eight percentage points between the two main lists, and cumulative market volume rose substantially. Meridianbet raised United Serbia’s vote-share threshold by 1.5 percentage points and its seat line by three, while retaining the same student-list lines in both markets.
The newest NSPM survey still shows a narrow lead for the Student List under that poll’s measurement, whereas other agencies have published markedly different results. No single instrument supplies a definitive picture.
The distinction is essential: prediction markets price a specific outcome; bookmakers set terms for wagers; opinion polls measure reported preferences among their respondents. With the parliamentary vote scheduled for October 25, the eventual official results of Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission will provide the definitive comparison.
Sources: Votendi October 10 analysis; Polymarket; Meridianbet vote-share lines; Meridianbet seat lines; N1; Votendi Serbia election hub.
