Serbia’s Student List leads Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list by 44.5% to 42.7% in an NSPM survey published on 20 October. The 1.8-point gap comes from interviews conducted between 25 September and 5 October, making this an earlier snapshot of the campaign rather than a measurement of opinion in the final days before the 25 October election.
Nova srpska politička misao (NSPM) says it interviewed a representative sample of 1,050 respondents by telephone across Serbia, excluding Kosovo. The research was conducted for NSPM’s own use. Its original release and results tables explicitly distinguish the survey from an election forecast.
NSPM Serbia poll: the full voting-intention breakdown
The headline figures exclude respondents who did not name a preference. The labels below reflect the options tested in the survey; they should not be read as a newly verified list of official ballot entries.
| Survey response | Reported share |
|---|---|
| Student List – “Studenti pobeđuju” | 44.5% |
| Aleksandar Vučić – “Ujedinjena Srbija” | 42.7% |
| Ivica Dačić – “Faktor stabilnosti” | 2.9% |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić – Zdravko Ponoš | 2.7% |
| Authentic Right – Miloš Jovanović | 2.5% |
| Others | 2.0% |
| Against the government, but unsure which list | 2.7% |
The final 2.7% is a response category, not an electoral list. Keeping it separate matters: the named lists and “Others” add up to 97.3%, while the complete published distribution totals 100%.
Compared with the previous NSPM poll: the student lead narrows
In the earlier September figures discussed by NSPM’s Đorđe Vukadinović on 30 September, the Student List stood at 44.4% and the Vučić-led list at 41.7%. The newly released results put them at 44.5% and 42.7% respectively.
| NSPM comparison | Earlier September figures | Published 20 October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Student List | 44.4% | 44.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Vučić-led list | 41.7% | 42.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Student List lead | 2.7 pp | 1.8 pp | −0.9 pp |
The Student List is almost unchanged, while the Vučić-led list gains one percentage point in the reported figures. The resulting student lead is 0.9 points smaller. These are small differences between published estimates, not proof of a statistically significant movement. Changes in list configurations and the treatment of uncommitted respondents also need to be checked before treating the releases as a fully consistent trend series.
Pollsters still disagree sharply: a 13.3-point gap in the measured lead
The larger disagreement is between polling organisations. Faktor Plus’s 16–20 September survey, reported by Tanjug citing Blic, interviewed 986 respondents and put the Vučić-led list at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1%: an 11.5-point government-side lead.
| Pollster / fieldwork | Student List | Government-side list | Reported lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSPM / 25 September–5 October | 44.5% | 42.7% | Students +1.8 pp |
| Faktor Plus / 16–20 September | 37.1% | 48.6% | Government +11.5 pp |
| CRTA / Stanford Democracy Action Lab / June (historical context) | 44.9% | 35.7% | Students +9.2 pp |
The new NSPM and September Faktor Plus results differ by 13.3 percentage points in the lead margin. Student support is 7.4 points higher in NSPM, while government-side support is 5.9 points lower. The contrast is therefore about who leads as well as by how much.
Looking further back, the June CRTA / Stanford result gave the students a 9.2-point lead. Compared with Faktor Plus’s September government lead of 11.5 points, that is a 20.7-point spread in reported margins. Those older figures illustrate the scale of disagreement; they are not three competing measurements of opinion on the same date.
Timing, interviewing methods, sampling, weighting, turnout assumptions, list labels and the handling of undecided voters can all affect comparisons. The available releases do not establish how much each factor explains, nor which pollster is closest to the eventual result. A difference between pollsters must not be presented as an electoral swing. Votendi therefore retains individual polls for Serbia rather than publishing a proprietary average or forecast.
Why the undecided figure matters
NSPM separately reports that 18.3% of all respondents were uncommitted, did not know or declined to answer the voting-intention question. That figure uses a different denominator from the headline list percentages and should not be added to the table above.
The published total sample of 1,050 also should not be mistaken for the number of respondents behind the decided-voter breakdown. The small headline gap alone does not establish a statistically secure lead or predict which list will win.
Published today, measured earlier in the campaign
The timing is central to interpreting this release. Interviews ended 15 days before publication and 20 days before election day. Developments after 5 October are therefore outside the survey’s fieldwork window.
Votendi’s reading is that the survey documents a closely divided contest within NSPM’s sample at that point in the campaign. The comparison with the previous NSPM release shows a smaller reported student lead, but does not by itself establish a late surge, a statistically significant trend or a projected seat outcome. A robust trend assessment requires comparable waves with consistent questions, list groupings and population definitions.
For the election calendar, related polling and background, see the Votendi Serbia election hub. Our comparison of Serbia’s divergent polls explains why results from different pollsters need careful interpretation.
