Votendi’s pre-election projection put Democrats at 53–47 in the Senate and 237–198 in the House. Assigning each open race to the candidate leading the reported vote count in the November 4 district-by-district snapshot puts Democrats at 55–45 in the Senate (2 uncalled) and 262–173 in the House (51 uncalled). That is two more Democratic Senate seats and 25 more Democratic House seats than Votendi projected before the election.
Votendi reconstructed its seat projection using pre-election polling averages where available. For races outside the toss-up category that Votendi did not poll, we assigned the seat to the party favored by The Cook Political Report’s November 2 ratings. For toss-ups, we used the polling leader, including three House districts for which we calculated separate averages from publicly listed pre-election surveys.
Congress at a glance
| Chamber | Before election | After election | Democratic seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 53 D–47 R | 55 D–45 R (2 uncalled) |
+2 |
| House | 237 D–198 R | 262 D–173 R (51 uncalled) |
+25 |
The post-election column combines called winners and reported vote leaders from the DDHQ race-by-race snapshot checked at 13:56 CET on November 4. It assigns Alaska to Republicans and Mississippi to Democrats provisionally. In the House, Democrats led in 26 open districts and Republicans in 25. DDHQ’s separate national calls-only display showed 54 D–44 R in the Senate (2 uncalled) and 241 D–150 R in the House (44 uncalled). The national and district displays were captured separately.
Senate. The November 2 Cook ratings provide a baseline of 48 Democratic-aligned and 46 Republican seats outside the six toss-ups, including seats not up for election. Votendi’s polling averages assign the six toss-ups five Democratic and one Republican. This correctly pointed to Democratic control. The Democratic caucus was already one seat above our allocation. With Alaska and Mississippi still open, the snapshot allowed a final Democratic caucus of 54 to 56 seats, one to three above our allocation. Senate figures include seats not up for election and count aligned independents with their caucus.
House. Election Pulse provided pre-election averages for 15 of the 18 toss-up districts. Democrats led in 13 and Republicans in two. The separate averages for CO-05, PA-01 and SC-01 bring the toss-up allocation to 15 Democratic and three Republican. Adding those seats to the November 2 Cook baseline of 222 Democratic and 195 Republican seats outside the toss-ups yields 237 Democratic and 198 Republican seats. DDHQ had already called four more seats for Democrats than our projection allocated to them.
The polling leader matched the projected winner in all 10 of the 15 polled toss-ups that DDHQ had called in the detailed district snapshot. The other five polled races were still open in that snapshot.
The comparison uses Votendi’s pre-election House coverage and the November 4 DDHQ race calls tracked by Votendi. The DDHQ calls are projections pending certification.
Where the projections diverged
Senate: In Iowa, Votendi’s polling average gave Republican Ashley Hinson a 0.1-point edge, while DDHQ called the race for Democrat Josh Turek. In South Carolina, the reconstruction assigned the seat to Republicans using Cook’s Lean Republican rating, while DDHQ called the race for Democrat Annie Andrews. The two uncalled races also pointed in the opposite direction in the reported count: Republican Dan Sullivan led in Alaska, where Votendi had assigned the seat to Democrats, and Democrat Scott Colom led in Mississippi, where the Cook-based allocation was Republican.
House toss-ups: In SC-01, the supplemental average narrowly favored Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt, while DDHQ called the seat for Democrat Nancy S. Lacore. In MI-10, our pre-election pick was Republican and the Democrat led the reported count (uncalled). In MI-07 and CO-05, the Democrats led the reported count (uncalled), matching our pre-election picks.
Other House districts: The reconstruction assigned AL-02, IN-05, OH-10, OH-15, TX-23, WI-01 and MO-02 to Republicans using Cook’s ratings. The first six were rated Lean Republican and MO-02 was rated Likely Republican. DDHQ called all seven for Democrats. These are the additional differences identified in the district-level snapshot, which can lag behind the national tally.
Complete House allocation including polls outside the tracker
To allocate all 435 seats, we filled the three gaps using the simple average of the three most recent pre-election general-election surveys listed by Poliwave for each district, with one matchup per survey and equal weight per survey. This retrospective calculation assigns 237 seats to Democrats and 198 to Republicans. DDHQ had already called 241 seats for Democrats in the national snapshot above, four more than this allocation.
CO-05: Jessica Killin (D) led Jeff Crank (R) by 1.3 points. PA-01: Bob Harvie (D) led Brian Fitzpatrick (R) by 0.7 points. SC-01: Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) led Nancy S. Lacore (D) by 0.3 points. Margins are calculated before rounding. Sources: CO-05, PA-01 and SC-01.
Votendi had already published the NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena PA-01 poll in an editorial article. It was not in the Election Pulse records used to calculate Votendi’s tracker averages. In the detailed DDHQ snapshot, PA-01 matched the supplemental polling leader, SC-01 went the other way and CO-05 was uncalled.
House toss-ups, district by district
We compared Votendi’s pre-election polling records for the 18 House toss-ups with DDHQ’s district calls. The table uses the displayed candidate averages where both major-party candidates had pre-election polling. An edge based on one poll reflects that survey alone. The DDHQ district statuses are from the detailed snapshot in Votendi’s live tracker and can have an earlier timestamp than the national tally.
| District | Votendi pre-election pick | Polling edge (points) | Polls | Post-election call or lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | Villegas | D +4.0 | 1 | D Called |
| CO-05 | Killin | D +1.3 | 3 (external) | D Leading (uncalled) |
| FL-14 | Castor | D +8.7 | 1 | D Called |
| FL-22 | Dandiya | D +2.0 | 1 | D Called |
| IA-02 | James | D +3.0 | 1 | D Called |
| KY-06 | Dembo | D +4.6 | 3 | D Called |
| MI-04 | Huizenga | R +2.0 | 3 | R Leading (uncalled) |
| MI-07 | Lawrence | D +7.3 | 2 | D Leading (uncalled) |
| MI-10 | Bouchard | R +4.1 | 2 | D Leading (uncalled) |
| MT-01 | Forstag | D +2.3 | 6 | D Called |
| NC-01 | Davis | D +6.5 | 2 | D Called |
| NY-17 | Conley | D +0.1 | 2 | D Leading (uncalled) |
| OH-07 | Poindexter | D +8.0 | 1 | D Called |
| PA-01 | Harvie | D +0.7 | 3 (external) | D Called |
| SC-01 | Costa Honeycutt | R +0.3 | 3 (external) | D Called |
| TX-15 | Pulido | D +10.2 | 2 | D Called |
| TX-35 | Garcia | D +0.3 | 2 | D Called |
| VA-01 | Taylor | D +1.0 | 2 | D Called |
Four of five called toss-ups matched the polling leader
Democrats Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Troy Jackson in Maine, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and James Talarico in Texas led our averages and were projected to win. Each also led by more in the reported count than in the polling average. Texas had the largest gap: Talarico’s reported lead was 12.04 points, about 9.1 points wider than his 2.9-point polling edge.
In Iowa, our average put Hinson at 46.2% and Democrat Josh Turek at 46.1%. Giving the seat to the polling leader for this exercise put Iowa in the Republican column. The election call went the other way, and Turek led the reported count by 4.11 points. The 0.1-point polling gap made Iowa effectively even going into Election Day.
Race-by-race comparison
| Senate race | Pre-election polling edge or Cook rating | Projected winner or reported count | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | R +0.1 · Ashley Hinson | Josh Turek (D) 50.51% to Hinson 46.40% · D +4.11 | Opposite winner |
| Kansas | D +2.6 · Adam Hamilton | Hamilton 50.93% to Roger Marshall 46.06% · D +4.87 | Matched |
| Maine | D +2.9 · Troy Jackson | Jackson 53.82% to Susan Collins 46.12% · D +7.70 | Matched |
| Ohio | D +3.6 · Sherrod Brown | Brown 50.01% to Jon Husted 45.15% · D +4.86 | Matched |
| Texas | D +2.9 · James Talarico | Talarico 55.07% to Ken Paxton 43.03% · D +12.04 | Matched |
| Alaska | D +1.9 · Mary Peltola | Uncalled. AP returns carried by Fox showed Dan Sullivan (R) 48.49% to Peltola 47.68%. | Opposite lead (uncalled) |
| Michigan | D +4.2 · Abdul El-Sayed | El-Sayed 52.44% to Mike Rogers 45.56% · D +6.88 | Matched |
| Mississippi | Likely Republican · Cindy Hyde-Smith (Cook rating) | Uncalled. AP reported Scott Colom (D) ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) by 43 votes. | Opposite lead (uncalled) |
The first six rows are the Senate races in Votendi’s toss-up comparison. Michigan, rated Lean Democratic, and Mississippi, added to Votendi’s live coverage, are shown separately. Including Michigan, five of the six called races with a verifiable Votendi polling average matched the polling leader. Mississippi enters the seat reconstruction as Republican based on Cook’s pre-election rating. The polling accuracy tally covers called races with a verified Votendi average.
How we assigned the seats
We assigned each race with a Votendi average to the candidate with the higher published figure, even when the difference was just 0.1 points. Across the seven tracked races with an average, this produces six Democratic seats and one Republican seat. This is a retrospective allocation based on polling leads. The percentage-point margins come from Votendi’s Election Day comparison, which preserves the figures available before voting ended.
Winner calls are from Votendi’s live results coverage and Decision Desk HQ. Vote shares are November 4 snapshots from the Fox News Senate results table and the AP figures carried by Fox for Alaska. Mississippi’s 43-vote margin comes from the Associated Press. Race calls and vote-count snapshots may have different update times. The percentages are reported returns and remain subject to change before certification.
