Serbia’s 25 October parliamentary election is now less than a month away, but the available national polls still do not point to a single uniform picture. The newest published NSPM figures put the Studentska lista ahead, while the latest Faktor Plus survey shows Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija ahead by double digits.
Newest published poll: NSPM
NSPM’s September survey, whose results were published on 30 September, reported:
- Studentska lista – Studenti pobeđuju: 44.4%
- Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija: 41.7%
Đorđe Vukadinović said the survey was conducted in early September. The publicly available reports located by Votendi do not provide a precise sample size, exact fieldwork dates or survey mode for this September wave, so those fields should remain blank until a technical note is published.
Latest Faktor Plus poll
Faktor Plus, fielded 16–20 September on a sample of 986 respondents, reported:
- Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija: 48.6%
- Studentska lista: 37.1%
- SPS-led list: 4.9%
- Evropska Srbija: 3.6%
- Autentična desnica: 2.8%
Why the polls differ so much
The spread between recent pollsters is large. NSPM’s September wave has the Student List ahead 44.4% to 41.7%, while Faktor Plus has Ujedinjena Srbija ahead 48.6% to 37.1%. An earlier CRTA / Stanford Democracy Action Lab face-to-face survey conducted 10–24 June reported 44.9% for the Student List and 35.7% for SNS among decided voters.
These surveys are not directly interchangeable. They were conducted at different times, used different methods or published different levels of methodological detail, and in some cases tested electoral configurations that changed during the campaign.
Why Votendi is not averaging these polls
For Serbia, Votendi treats each survey as an individual polling snapshot and uses the series to show the range of published measurements. We do not publish a proprietary Serbia polling average or election forecast in the launch version because the available surveys differ materially in methodology, timing and tested list structure.
BIRODI is a model, not a poll
BIRODI’s late-August central scenario placed the Student List at 48.5% and the Vučić list at 38.6%. BIRODI described this as an analytical model based on historical election results, 2026 polling and a turnout assumption, not as a newly conducted public-opinion survey. Votendi keeps that model separate from the polling table.
What to watch next
The key question for the remaining campaign is whether newer surveys converge as the final list structure settles. Votendi will add new national polls as they are published and will keep fieldwork dates, sample sizes, methods and source information visible whenever those details are available.
Follow the Serbia 2026 election hub for the latest polling snapshots and official election information.
