Marine Le Pen leads both first-round line-ups and all three hypothetical runoffs in an OpinionWay poll for CNEWS published on 12 November. The survey tests two candidate combinations, with and without Teddy Riner, alongside separate second-round matchups against Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann.
The five scenarios are now available in Votendi’s France presidential election hub. They describe responses to specified hypothetical ballots, rather than a confirmed candidate field or a forecast of the election result.
Two first-round line-ups, the same leading pair
In the scenario including Riner, Le Pen receives 31%, followed by Mélenchon on 16%, Philippe on 12% and Glucksmann on 10%. David Lisnard stands at 9%, while Riner and Bruno Retailleau each receive 4%.
Without Riner, Le Pen records 32%, Mélenchon remains on 16% and Philippe on 12%. Glucksmann receives 11% and Lisnard 10%. The table compares the two line-ups within this survey; it does not show a change over time.
| Candidate | With Riner | Without Riner |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 31% | 32% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 16% | 16% |
| Édouard Philippe | 12% | 12% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 10% | 11% |
| David Lisnard | 9% | 10% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 4% | 5% |
| Teddy Riner | 4% | Not included |
| Gabriel Attal | 3% | 4% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3% | 3% |
| Éric Zemmour | 3% | 2% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2% | 2% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2% | 1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1% | 1% |
| Karim Bouamrane | <1% | 1% |
Le Pen’s lead over Mélenchon is 15 percentage points with Riner and 16 points without him. Differences between the two line-ups should not be interpreted as evidence that individual voters transferred directly from one candidate to another.
Philippe is the closest opponent in the tested runoffs
Le Pen leads Philippe by 56% to 44%, Glucksmann by 58% to 42%, and Mélenchon by 68% to 32%. Philippe therefore records the narrowest deficit among the three opponents tested: 12 percentage points, compared with 16 for Glucksmann and 36 for Mélenchon.
| Hypothetical runoff | Le Pen | Opponent | Le Pen lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Pen–Philippe | 56% | 44% | 12 points |
| Le Pen–Glucksmann | 58% | 42% | 16 points |
| Le Pen–Mélenchon | 68% | 32% | 36 points |
These are separate hypothetical questions. They do not establish which candidates will reach a runoff, and they should not be combined into a single result or polling average.
How the survey was conducted
OpinionWay conducted the online survey on 10–12 November 2026 among 1,001 adults, including 964 registered voters. Voting-intention questions used a smaller base of respondents certain to vote, with the number expressing a choice varying by scenario. The full sample size should therefore not be read as the response base for every percentage.
The first-round expressed-choice bases were 611 respondents with Riner and 600 without him. The runoff bases were 504 for Philippe, 512 for Glucksmann and 471 for Mélenchon. Reported non-expression was higher in the runoff questions, reinforcing the need to read the percentages alongside the methodology.
Source: OpinionWay/CNEWS technical notice filed with the Commission des sondages. See the individual records for the first round with Riner, the first round without Riner, and the runoffs against Philippe, Mélenchon and Glucksmann.
