OpinionWay / CNEWS — Round 1 — CNEWS scenario without Teddy Riner — 12 November 2026

OpinionWay for CNEWS, published 12 November 2026, fieldwork 10–12 November. CAWI quota sample: 1,001 adults, including 964 registered voters. Published estimates use respondents certain to vote (9–10/10), weighted by demographics and recalled 2022 presidential / 2024 legislative vote. Full likely-voter base 660. Hypothetical scenarios, not forecasts or election results. Source: official Commission des sondages notice 10371; PDF filename/title contains an outdated September reference but dated methodology is November. First-round scenario WITHOUT Teddy Riner. Expressed-vote base 600. Published non-expression rate 16% on broad base, not an additional candidate share.