New mayoral polls ahead of Slovenia’s 15 November local elections suggest a second round in Ljubljana, a closer contest in Maribor and sharply different pictures of the race in Koper. The surveys offer useful signals, but their percentages need to be read alongside their different voter bases and available methodological information.
Votendi has added the new surveys to its Slovenia local elections hub, where earlier polls remain available for context.
Ljubljana: Janković leads, with Mesec the closest challenger
A Ninamedia survey for Dnevnik, published on 13 November, puts incumbent Zoran Janković at 33.2% and Levica leader Luka Mesec at 22.9%. According to Siol’s account, fieldwork ran from 9 to 12 November.
The same account reports Aleš Primc at 6.8%, Anton Rop at 5.6%, Klemen Boštjančič at 5.3% and Aleš Vrhovec at 5.1%. Among respondents who selected a candidate, Janković has 38.4% and Mesec 26.5%. These decided-voter figures use a different denominator from the headline numbers.
Votendi’s reading is that Janković remains the frontrunner, while the poll points towards a runoff rather than a settled first-round victory. It does not tell us how voters backing other candidates would divide in a second round. Our hub also retains the separate Valicon/Žurnal24 survey; its figures should not be merged with Ninamedia’s into a single result.
Maribor: four candidates compete for two runoff places
The new Mediana survey for Večer puts Bor Greiner at 28.8%, Matevž Frangež at 24.6%, Katja Koren at 21.0% and Andrej Bauman at 14.9%, among decided respondents. Svet24’s report gives fieldwork dates of 6–9 November; the figures were published on 13 November.
In the October survey, the corresponding figures were 39.1%, 25.4%, 16.0% and 9.9%. Greiner’s measured lead over Frangež has therefore narrowed from 13.7 to 4.2 percentage points. Sample size and interviewing method for the new survey were not available in the accessible reports reviewed, limiting a fuller assessment of that change.
Večer’s original report describes a four-candidate contest for the runoff. Votendi’s assessment is that the key question now extends beyond who leads: the ordering of the challengers could determine the eventual matchup. The available figures do not establish which differences are statistically significant.
Koper: two pollsters give different pictures
A Mediana survey conducted on 9–11 November among 518 respondents gives Aleš Bržan 36.7%, Nik Popovič 26.5% and Mateja Hrvatin Kozlovič 8.9%, according to 24ur’s report published on 12 November. A further 11.5% were undecided.
The earlier Ninamedia survey for Primorske novice, conducted on 4–6 November among 400 respondents, put Bržan at 53.2%, Hrvatin Kozlovič at 16.1% and Popovič at 13.1%. Both surveys place the incumbent first, but they differ substantially on his support and the identity of his nearest challenger.
That disagreement deserves more attention than a simple claim of momentum. Different fieldwork periods, response bases and methods may contribute; the accessible reporting does not explain the full gap. Mediana’s commissioner was also not clearly identified in the reports reviewed. Votendi is displaying the surveys separately rather than treating their difference as a measured swing.
What to watch on election day
In Votendi’s assessment, the three races pose different questions: whether Janković can avoid a runoff, which two candidates emerge in Maribor, and which polling picture comes closer to the outcome in Koper. None is answered by a survey alone.
Follow the Slovenia election hub for polling sources and results updates. The tables distinguish reported support from decided-voter figures and identify missing methodological details. Polls are snapshots of opinion, not election results or forecasts.
