Gadi Eisenkot can finish ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu and still struggle to replace him. With Israel voting on October 27, the decisive question is which parties could support a government after the ballots are counted.
A Lazar Research poll published by Walla on October 20 illustrates the problem. It gives Eisenkot’s Yashar 23 seats and Likud 19. Yet the four main Zionist opposition parties together have 54 seats, short of the 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset. The Reservists–Economic list adds four possible seats, taking that combination to 58.
The three-seat gap that changes the conversation
Our arithmetic below uses that single survey. It is a scenario illustration, not a Votendi polling average or a forecast. Walla reports the Reservists–Economic list separately from the main opposition bloc; combining them here does not imply a coalition agreement.
ISRAEL • THE PATH TO 61
A polling lead is only the first step
Main Zionist opposition: 54 seats — 7 below 61
With Reservists–Economic: 58 seats — 3 below 61
With Ra’am as well: 64 seats — arithmetic only
Source: Lazar Research / Walla, published October 20; fieldwork October 19, 2026. Votendi calculations. Bars share a 0–72 seat scale. Passing 61 does not establish political agreement or predict an investiture vote.
Arab parties have seats, but no automatic coalition partner
The survey assigns six seats to Ra’am and eight to the Joint List. Either could matter to government formation, but they are separate parties with different strategies. Their seats cannot simply be treated as committed votes for Eisenkot.
Reuters reported on October 19 that Eisenkot had rejected an alliance with Arab parties. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas nevertheless saw scope for negotiations, while Joint List figure Ahmad Tibi described possible support from outside government. These positions leave a distinction between joining a cabinet and sustaining one without joining it.
Votendi’s reading: the obstacle is political as well as numerical. A party may help deny Netanyahu a majority without agreeing to every alternative government. See our earlier analysis of Arab turnout and the broader coalition pathways.
Other polls show a different route altogether
The Walla scenario is not a consensus result. Channel 14’s October 20 Next Data poll gives Likud 30 seats and Yashar 20. Its bloc split is Netanyahu 62, Zionist opposition 44 and Arab parties 14: a result in which Netanyahu’s bloc clears 61 without opposition or Arab-party support.
Next Data says it surveyed 2,116 adults on October 20. Walla’s online Panel4All survey covered 601 adults on October 19 and reports a maximum sampling error of four percentage points. Those are different surveys, and sample size alone cannot explain or resolve their disagreement. Readers should compare fieldwork, methods, party assumptions and bloc definitions.
What to watch before election day
The first question is whether small lists cross the electoral threshold. In Walla’s survey, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel falls short, while Reservists–Economic wins representation. Channel 14 puts both below the threshold. Such differences can change seat allocations throughout the chamber.
The second is whether campaign refusals leave room for post-election compromise. A 58-seat combination remains short of a stable 61-seat majority; reaching 64 on paper still requires partners to agree. Actual government formation and parliamentary confidence also depend on the positions taken by the remaining parties.
The useful distinction is between the largest party, a majority of seats and a workable governing arrangement. They are related, but they are not interchangeable. Follow the individual surveys and source links in Votendi’s Israel election hub.
Data checked October 21, 2026. This analysis uses two individually identified polls and does not publish a proprietary average or election forecast.
