A newly published Michigan survey reports an advantage for Democratic candidates in both of the state’s major statewide contests, but the numbers come from a pollster with a limited public track record and should be interpreted with care.
Wedgewood Polls surveyed 607 likely voters on October 8–9, 2026. In its two-candidate U.S. Senate question, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed received 53% against Republican Mike Rogers at 47%, a six-percentage-point gap. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson recorded 55% against Republican John James at 45%, a ten-point gap.
The results appeared in the Political Betting Polls latest U.S. polling list on October 10, with the Senate result also listed by Decision Desk HQ. They are individual survey readings, not statewide polling averages or forecasts of the November 3 outcome.
Michigan’s latest Wedgewood Polls results
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Reported gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Abdul El-Sayed — 53% | Mike Rogers — 47% | El-Sayed +6 |
| Governor | Jocelyn Benson — 55% | John James — 45% | Benson +10 |
Pollster: Wedgewood Polls. Fieldwork: October 8–9, 2026. Sample: 607 likely voters. Method: online panel. Pollster-reported margin of error: ±4 percentage points. Results above display the two named candidates in each question; neither table reports an undecided category.
Why the methodology matters
The five-page Wedgewood report describes an online panel of Michigan respondents screened for voter registration and likelihood of participating in the 2026 general election. The pollster says results were weighted using age, gender, race or ethnicity, and education against state voter-file and census-based targets. Wedgewood describes the research as independently designed and funded, without a candidate, party or outside sponsor.
Several details are not clear from the published toplines. The report does not sufficiently explain how respondents were recruited into the panel, and the 53–47 and 55–45 splits leave no visible share for undecided or third-party voters. It is therefore not possible to tell from these figures alone whether respondents were forced to choose between two candidates or whether undecided responses were excluded or allocated.
Wedgewood lists a conventional ±4-point margin of error, but this requires qualification. Standard sampling-error calculations assume a probability-based selection method; for a nonprobability online panel, a stated margin of error may not capture all relevant sources of uncertainty. Wedgewood’s limited documented election-cycle history adds another reason to evaluate the result alongside independently conducted surveys.
The survey’s two-candidate Senate gap should not be treated as statistically conclusive simply because six points exceeds the pollster’s stated four-point error for individual estimates. The uncertainty in a difference between two candidate shares is a separate calculation.
How does the Senate result compare with other polling?
Recent Michigan Senate polling has produced a range of gaps between the two major-party candidates. Decision Desk HQ’s October listing includes a Quantus Insights survey from October 5–6 with El-Sayed ahead by 1.1 points, a YouGov survey conducted September 22–October 4 with El-Sayed ahead by one point, and a Mitchell Research & Communications survey from October 1 showing an El-Sayed gap of approximately four points. Other surveys have recorded different margins.
Wedgewood’s six-point figure should be read as part of that mixed polling landscape, not as proof that support for either candidate has moved by six points. Differences in sampling, fieldwork dates, question wording and treatment of undecided voters can all influence published results.
Rogers distances himself from Trump on trade
The new survey arrives amid a closely watched debate over Republican Mike Rogers’ relationship with President Donald Trump’s policies. On October 7, Reuters reported that Rogers called for an end to the U.S.–Canada tariff dispute, arguing that the confrontation was increasing costs for Michigan businesses and consumers. He has also publicly diverged from Trump on aspects of the Iran war.
Rogers argues that his ties to the president could help him influence administration decisions. El-Sayed has challenged the timing and substance of Rogers’ change in position. These competing arguments are part of the Senate campaign, not findings established by the Wedgewood survey.
The candidates also clashed over health care, foreign policy and other issues in their first Senate debate, as documented by the Associated Press. Read Votendi’s earlier analysis of Rogers’ positions on tariffs and Iran for the wider campaign context.
What to watch before November 3
Michigan’s open Senate seat and gubernatorial election are both drawing national attention. Further surveys using clearly documented sampling and reporting undecided voters will help place the new numbers in context. Voters and readers should distinguish a single poll from a weighted trend across multiple pollsters.
Votendi methodology note: This article reports Wedgewood’s released toplines with caveats. Publication of a poll as news does not mean it has been admitted into Votendi’s Election Pulse polling average. No adjustment to the tracker is implied by this report.
Sources: Political Betting Polls — latest U.S. polls (October 10, 2026); Wedgewood Polls, 2026 Michigan General Election: Senate & Governor Toplines & Crosstabs (five-page report dated October 9, 2026); Decision Desk HQ — Michigan polls; Reuters, October 7, 2026; Associated Press, October 8, 2026.
