With Brazil’s first round on October 4 approaching, the latest national polls continue to show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro clearly separated from the rest of the presidential field — but the size of the gap between them varies noticeably from pollster to pollster.
Updated October 2, 2026, with the latest Datafolha national poll.
That variation is exactly why the closing days of the campaign are better read through several verified polls and broader polling trends rather than through a single headline number.
The latest polls show different margins
One of the most recent national surveys, released by Meio/Ideia on September 30, put Lula at 39.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38.4% in the stimulated first-round scenario. Augusto Cury followed with 6.7%, Renan Santos with 4.5% and Ronaldo Caiado with 4.4%. The difference between Lula and Bolsonaro was within the survey’s margin of error. BOL
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, published a day earlier, showed a different numerical spread. Lula recorded 45.3%, while Flávio Bolsonaro had 42.2%. The survey interviewed 5,005 voters between September 23 and 28 and reported a one-point margin of error. CNN Brasil
Quaest’s latest national poll placed Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado both had 4%, while Renan Santos recorded 3%. Quaest interviewed 2,004 voters between September 24 and 27; the survey was registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-06520/2026. CNN Brasil
Another poll released by Nexus and commissioned by BTG Pactual showed Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37%. That survey interviewed 2,000 voters between September 25 and 27 and was registered as BR-07557/2026. UOL Notícias
Datafolha remains one of the key closing polls
The latest Datafolha poll, released on October 1, puts Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% in the stimulated first-round scenario. Augusto Cury has 4%, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos have 3% each. Romeu Zema and Samara Martins have 1% each, while Wilson Grassi is below 1%; blank, null or none totals 5%, and 2% are undecided. The survey’s maximum margin of error is two percentage points. Folha de S.Paulo / Datafolha
The survey interviewed 2,506 voters between September 29 and October 1 and is registered with Brazil’s electoral authorities as BR-08039/2026. Compared with the previous Datafolha round, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro each moved up two percentage points, leaving the numerical gap unchanged at four points. Those movements are within the survey’s maximum margin of error of ±2 percentage points. Folha de S.Paulo
The new Datafolha reading provides a late-campaign snapshot closer to Election Day, but like every individual poll it should be read alongside other verified surveys rather than as a forecast.
What the polling range tells us
Taken together, the latest surveys do not produce one identical picture.
Across several national polls published in the final days of September, Lula has generally measured from around 39% to 45%, while Flávio Bolsonaro has ranged from roughly 34% to 42%. Different pollsters use different sampling and interviewing methods, which is one reason individual polls can produce different estimates even when conducted during similar periods. UOL Notícias
The broader pattern is more consistent: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro occupy the two leading positions in the national first-round polling, while the remaining candidates are polling substantially lower.
That is a description of the available polling data — not a prediction of the election result.
Why individual polls should not be read as forecasts
A poll estimates voter preferences during a specific fieldwork period. It does not measure everyone who will ultimately vote, and it cannot account perfectly for late changes in turnout or voter decisions.
Comparing multiple polls can therefore be more informative than focusing on whether one candidate gained or lost a point in a single survey.
This is also why Votendi separates individual poll results from its polling averages and provides 7D, 30D and ALL views of the data. The objective is to make it possible to see both short-term movement and the broader trend while keeping the underlying polls and sources visible.
Votendi therefore presents polling averages as polling averages — not forecasts — and keeps pollster, fieldwork, sample, source and registration information visible alongside the data.
The final polling picture is still being formed
Several polls are arriving in the final days before voting, meaning the closing polling picture is not yet complete.
Datafolha’s October 1 survey is now part of the closing polling picture, while other registered surveys are still expected before Election Day. The purpose of the next updates to the Votendi tracker will be to incorporate verified new data while preserving a transparent record of how the polling picture changed before voting begins.
Brazil votes on October 4.
The final pre-election snapshot will matter not because it guarantees the outcome, but because it provides a public benchmark that can later be compared with the official election results.
Follow the full Brazil 2026 polling tracker:
https://votendi.com/elections/brazil-general-election-2026/
