Early in-person voting opens across Texas on Monday, October 19, moving one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests of the 2026 midterms from polling and campaign rallies to ballots. Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton enter the voting period with several recent surveys showing a narrow contest — and with sharply different sources of political support.
Texans can vote early through October 30 before the November 3 general election, according to the Texas Secretary of State. The timing matters: campaign claims about enthusiasm now face their first practical test, even though early-vote participation alone cannot establish which candidate is receiving votes.
A two-point CBS lead is not a settled race
The CBS News/YouGov poll released October 18 shows Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49% among likely voters. Its 3.5-percentage-point margin of error for likely voters is larger than the reported two-point gap. The survey was conducted October 8–16; the University of Texas Texas Politics Project tracker reports a likely-voter sample of 1,343. CBS separately reports interviewing 1,492 registered voters in its broader survey.
Other recent polls tell a similarly competitive but not identical story. InsiderAdvantage’s October 13–14 survey put Paxton at 49% and Talarico at 48%. Marist’s October 8–11 likely-voter measure found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45%. Differences in timing, samples, weighting and question design mean those figures should not be treated as a simple day-by-day movement toward either candidate.
| Texas Senate poll | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News / YouGov | 51% | 49% | Oct. 8–16 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 48% | 49% | Oct. 13–14 |
| Marist | 47% | 45% | Oct. 8–11 |
Sources: CBS News/YouGov, InsiderAdvantage and Marist; fieldwork and published candidate shares as recorded in Votendi’s U.S. election tracker. Figures refer to separate polls, not election results or an outcome forecast.
Why turnout is a political question, not just a statistic
CBS’s analysis identifies a tension between Texas’s longstanding Republican orientation and the current issue environment. Paxton draws strength from voters who identify with the Republican Party, support President Donald Trump and approve of the administration’s immigration and deportation policies. Talarico benefits from discontent over prices and living costs, as well as favorable evaluations of his personal suitability for office among respondents.
The survey also shows why the composition of the electorate could matter. Talarico registers support among younger and Latino voters, while CBS reports that more Democrats currently say they will definitely vote. But those stated intentions are not actual turnout totals. Paxton can draw on the state’s existing Republican electorate, and a different participation pattern could produce a different result from a likely-voter poll.
For Votendi, this is the central analytical distinction: a statewide polling lead measures a snapshot of voter preferences under an assumed electorate. The contest on November 3 will be decided by the people who participate, not by the distribution of preferences within a survey.
Two campaigns, competing explanations of the election
The candidates are making substantially different arguments about what a Texas senator should prioritize. Talarico has placed affordability, healthcare access and changes to tariff policy at the center of his message. Paxton emphasizes border enforcement, deportations, close alignment with Trump’s agenda and a more deregulatory approach to energy and business. Both have discussed tax measures intended to ease household expenses, although their proposals differ.
Those differences are not merely national talking points. Economic concerns may affect how voters evaluate the governing party, while immigration and cultural questions remain important to a substantial part of Texas’s Republican electorate. A Houston Chronicle comparison of the candidates’ positions highlights divides across tariffs, immigration, healthcare, energy and foreign policy.
What early-voting figures can — and cannot — tell us
Early participation data will help show where and when voters are turning out. They will not reveal the actual candidate choices recorded on secret ballots. A larger early-vote total in an urban or suburban county, for example, cannot be translated directly into votes for a party without assumptions about that county’s electorate and changes since prior elections.
Several regions warrant scrutiny as counting and turnout information become available: populous urban areas such as Harris County; suburbs that have shifted demographically; Tarrant County; and South Texas counties where Latino political preferences have changed in recent cycles. The relevant comparison will be with prior elections and each area’s registered electorate, not an unsupported inference that early turnout equals a candidate advantage.
Key dates and what Votendi is tracking
Texas early in-person voting runs from October 19 to October 30. The deadline for election officials to receive applications for a mail ballot is October 23, and Election Day is November 3. Eligible registered voters can generally use any early-voting location within their county; official local details and identification rules are available through VoteTexas.gov.
Votendi will continue to distinguish public polling, verified election-administration information and any eventual official results. For the latest candidate surveys and the broader contest map, see the U.S. Midterm Elections 2026 hub. For national context, read our analysis of independents and turnout in the generic congressional ballot.
Sources: Texas Secretary of State; CBS News/YouGov, October 18; Texas Politics Project poll tracker; Houston Chronicle candidate issue comparison. Polls cited were conducted before or during October 2026. Article prepared October 19, 2026.
