Brazil’s presidential runoff is underway on Sunday, October 25, with nearly 159 million eligible voters choosing between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Early ballot records from overseas show contrasting results across Asia and Oceania, while a final opinion poll points to an exceptionally close contest. Brazil’s electoral court has also imposed new social-media monitoring requirements during the final hours of the campaign.
Voting began across Brazil at 8:00 a.m. Brasília time (11:00 UTC), with polling stations scheduled to close at 5:00 p.m. (20:00 UTC).
The election follows a closely contested first round on October 4, when Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes against Lula’s 45.16%.
Neither candidate secured the majority required to win outright, sending Brazil’s presidential contest to a second round.
First overseas votes show contrasting results
The first available ballot records from Brazilian voters abroad reveal substantial differences between countries.
According to electronic ballot reports obtained from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and published by CNN Brasil on Sunday morning, Lula received more votes than Flávio Bolsonaro in Australia, New Zealand, mainland China and South Korea.
In Australia, the published count showed Lula with 6,017 votes against Bolsonaro’s 3,465.
New Zealand, among the first countries to complete voting, recorded 418 votes for Lula and 101 for Bolsonaro.
In mainland China, the reported count was 375 for Lula and 134 for Bolsonaro, while South Korea recorded 148 for Lula and 82 for his opponent.
Japan presented a markedly different picture.
An early published count showed Flávio Bolsonaro receiving 28,538 votes, compared with 7,098 for Lula.
These figures reflect ballot records available at the time of reporting. Totals can change as further polling-station reports are processed.
Crucially, these overseas results are not representative of the Brazilian electorate as a whole.
The approximately 919,000 Brazilians registered to vote abroad account for only a small fraction of the country’s total electorate. Their political preferences may differ considerably from those of voters living in Brazil.
The TSE is scheduled to begin publishing its official consolidated presidential results after voting closes at 5:00 p.m. Brasília time.
Nearly 159 million Brazilians eligible to vote
According to the electoral authorities, 158,745,463 voters are eligible to participate in Sunday’s second round.
The presidential election is taking place nationwide, while five states and the Federal District are also holding runoff elections for governor.
In the presidential contest, Lula is seeking another term in office, while Flávio Bolsonaro is attempting to succeed him and continue the political movement associated with his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The campaign has been shaped by disagreements over economic policy, public security, social programmes, institutional accountability and Brazil’s international relationships.
Both candidates made their final campaign appeals on Saturday, seeking to mobilise supporters and undecided voters.
Flávio Bolsonaro voted on Sunday morning at a polling station in Rio de Janeiro, accompanied by family members.
Lula was scheduled to vote in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo, where he has longstanding political ties.
Final PoderData/AYA poll shows a technical tie
A final PoderData/AYA opinion poll released early on Sunday placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% of valid-vote intentions, compared with 49% for Lula.
The survey interviewed 4,000 voters by telephone between October 23 and 24 across 914 municipalities.
Its reported margin of error was ±1.6 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
The two-percentage-point difference falls within the survey’s statistical uncertainty, meaning the candidates remain technically tied in this particular poll.
The research was registered with the TSE under BR-02828/2026.
Other final surveys have produced different measurements, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding the runoff.
Votendi’s publicly displayed polling tracker currently contains 54 published runoff polls, with a weighted average of 51.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 48.9% for Lula.
These figures represent pre-election polling estimates, not a forecast or an indication of actual votes cast on Sunday.
Readers can examine the individual polls, fieldwork dates and methodology in the Votendi Brazil Presidential Runoff Tracker.
Electoral court tightens oversight of Meta and X
Another significant development concerns Brazil’s regulation of election-related content on social media.
The Superior Electoral Court has ordered Meta and X to provide reports every six hours about the reach and distribution of posts associated with federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira and influencer Pablo Marçal.
The measures follow allegations raised by a coalition supporting Lula that the accounts were being used to favour Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign through potentially irregular online distribution and alleged disinformation.
The court also restricted certain automatic recommendations of election-related posts to users who do not already follow those accounts.
The restrictions apply to specific categories of content and do not amount to a general suspension of the profiles.
The platforms were instructed to prevent artificial amplification of the accounts under investigation, with penalties potentially reaching 500,000 Brazilian reais per proven violation.
Importantly, the electoral judge stated that the available information had not established improper algorithmic favouritism.
The investigation therefore remains a matter of disputed allegations and judicial oversight rather than a confirmed finding of electoral manipulation.
What happens when Brazil’s polling stations close?
Brazil uses electronic voting machines, allowing election authorities to process and publish results relatively quickly after polling stations close.
The official timetable for Sunday is:
8:00 a.m. Brasília (11:00 UTC): Polling stations open.
5:00 p.m. Brasília (20:00 UTC): Voting closes, except where voters are already waiting in line.
From 5:00 p.m. Brasília (20:00 UTC): The TSE may begin releasing official presidential vote totals.
Because Croatia switched to standard time on October 25, the scheduled start of Brazil’s official results coverage corresponds to 9:00 p.m. Central European Time (CET).
Overseas ballot records published before that point should not be confused with the national count.
The winner will be the candidate who receives more than half of the valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots.
What Votendi will be watching
The final hours of Brazil’s presidential election will provide an important test of the polling data published during the campaign.
Several factors will determine how the results should be interpreted, including geographic voting patterns, turnout, the distribution of votes in major states and whether the final count differs from the closing surveys.
The first overseas results provide useful information about voting among Brazilian communities abroad, but they cannot establish the outcome of the national election.
Once official counting begins, attention will shift from polling averages to verified TSE figures.
Votendi will follow the official results, compare them with its final polling tracker and provide election-night updates as verified information becomes available.
Sources: Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court – TSE, CNN Brasil – Overseas ballot reports, CNN Brasil – PoderData/AYA final poll, TSE – Social-media monitoring ruling, Reuters – Brazil presidential runoff.
