2026 midterms: every outstanding race, the latest counts and Polymarket favourites

Democrats have secured control of Congress, but the 2026 midterm count still has unfinished business: two Senate seats, closely contested House districts, same-party contests and two Louisiana runoffs that will not be decided until December.

The remaining races fall into different categories. Some could still change hands as ballots are counted. Others await ranked-choice tabulation, a new runoff election or a decision desk’s winner call. A candidate can also concede before a formal tabulation is finished.

Research checked November 6, 2026, approximately 18:15–18:23 UTC (19:15–19:23 CET). Each tally below retains its own provider timestamp; these are not simultaneous live results. Market percentages are the displayed rounded probabilities captured during the research window and can change.

Colour key: Red = Republican favourite; blue = Democratic favourite. Colours indicate the party of the favourite to win, based on the outlook and Polymarket snapshot cited for each race. They do not indicate the current vote leader or a declared winner. Louisiana colours refer to the runoff favourite.

How to read this complete national watchlist

This guide covers U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state-governor contests, rather than every state-legislative or local election. It starts from 270toWin’s November 6 DDHQ-based House watchlist and checks the individual results pages. The Senate and governor sections are checked against DDHQ and AP reporting.

There is no single reconciled “uncalled” total across the retrieved feeds. AP, ABC and DDHQ do not always show the same calls at the same time. The House tables therefore identify the provider, distinguish genuine counting uncertainty from procedural delays, and flag conflicting status reports. Four additional cases where a market already displays a settled outcome appear separately. Texas 27 has been removed from the outstanding list after a confirmed DDHQ call.

“Favoured” below is a qualitative reading of the reported count or an explicitly attributed market assessment. Votendi is not presenting a new statistical forecast: an independent probability would require a verified inventory and geographic breakdown of the remaining ballots. A 96% market price is neither 96% of the vote nor an official result.

Senate: Alaska — a 637-vote lead, with ranked choices still to come

DDHQ’s tally dated November 5, 16:55 EST gives Mary Peltola (D) 102,962 votes, or 48.17%, against Dan Sullivan (R) on 102,325, or 47.88%. Peltola leads by 637 votes. Gerald Heikes has 4,846 votes. These are first-choice results.

Why it remains unresolved: the count is incomplete and neither leading candidate currently has a majority. DDHQ estimates 70% counted, while ABC’s checked feed estimates approximately 74%; those percentages are provider estimates, not competing vote totals. KTUU reports that ranked-choice tabulation begins November 18 if required. Lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and transferable preferences can change the ordering.

Outlook: Peltola leads the count and is the clear market favourite. Sullivan’s campaign argues transfers would favour him, while Peltola’s campaign predicts victory after all ballots are counted; neither claim is a completed tabulation. Polymarket’s checked Midterms page displayed Peltola 98%, Sullivan 2%. That large market advantage cannot be established from the 637-vote lead alone. See Votendi’s explanation of Alaska’s ranked-choice count.

Senate: Mississippi — Colom leads, but the source must travel with the number

DDHQ’s November 6 update at 03:29 EST reports Scott Colom (D) on 467,233 votes, or 49.06%, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) on 465,146, or 48.84%, and independent Ty Pinkins on 20,013. Colom’s lead in this feed is 2,087 votes, with more than 95% estimated counted.

A different AP tally relayed by the Guardian at 11:56 EST on November 6 gives Colom 466,959 and Hyde-Smith 465,023: a 1,936-vote gap. These snapshots disagree. The later publication time does not by itself reconcile the underlying county data, and this article does not silently combine them.

Why it remains unresolved: eligible absentee and affidavit ballots are still being processed. The Mississippi secretary of state says mailed absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive by November 10. The campaigns are also disputing ballot-handling procedures; a campaign letter is not a court ruling.

Outlook: Colom is favoured by the market, but the remaining count and any consequential legal decisions still matter. The checked Polymarket market displayed Colom 98%, Hyde-Smith 2%. Read Votendi’s separate report on the ballot dispute.

House: every race on the checked counting and procedural watchlist

The table entries below cover all remaining entries from the starting DDHQ-based House list after moving Texas 27 and four cross-provider cases into the separate status section. An absent DDHQ call is not proof that every other organisation still regards a race as undecided. Estimated counting progress is reproduced as displayed; “more than 95%” does not tell us the exact number or partisan composition of outstanding ballots.

Alaska and Arizona

California: party control and the individual winner are different questions

CA-04, CA-07 and CA-14 have two Democratic finalists; CA-40 has two Republican finalists. The individual winners can remain unknown even though those four seats cannot change party. California Voter Foundation explains that a large number of ballots can remain uncounted even in races with wide leads.

Colorado and Florida

Louisiana: two seats require a December election

The Louisiana secretary of state’s calendar confirms the December 12 U.S. House election. These are new runoff contests, not a recount of November 3. Early voting runs November 28–December 5, excluding Sunday November 29. The first-round figures below describe a multi-candidate field, so neither Democratic leader’s small advantage is a head-to-head forecast.

Maine and Minnesota

For Maine 2, this guide uses the secretary of state’s first-choice announcement rather than mixing it with DDHQ’s slightly different tally. WABI subsequently reported Dunlap’s concession. The announced tabulation starts November 9 at 10 a.m. Eastern; the concession sharply reduces political uncertainty but should be distinguished from completion of the official process.

North Carolina

Tennessee and Washington

Four feed discrepancies: do not present these as fresh toss-ups

The following races still appeared on the starting watchlist or lacked a call timestamp in the retrieved DDHQ text, but their Polymarket pages already displayed “Yes” for one candidate and “No” for the opponent instead of live percentage quotes. That is a market-status observation, not independent proof of official certification. They are separated here so readers do not mistake stale watchlist entries for newly competitive seats.

Newly called and removed: Texas 27. DDHQ records a decision at 11:33 EST on November 6 for Republican Michael Cloud. Its tally gives Cloud 144,474 votes against Democrat Tanya Lloyd’s 140,549, a 3,925-vote margin. It should no longer be counted as an uncalled race under that provider.

Governor: Kansas — Holscher favoured as the close count is checked

DDHQ’s November 6 tally at 12:43 EST gives Cindy Holscher (D) 549,979 votes, or 50.32%, and Ty Masterson (R) 542,933, or 49.68%. Her lead is 7,046 votes, with more than 95% estimated counted.

Why it remains on the watchlist: the narrow count is still being completed and checked. KCTV reports a close-race audit, while KSNW’s November 6 report identifies Friday as the arrival deadline for qualifying mailed ballots. An audit is a verification process, not evidence that the current count is wrong.

Outlook: Holscher is strongly favoured, and Polymarket’s checked governor page displayed 99% for her. The latest tally is slightly different from the 7,045-vote margin in Thursday’s AP report; the date and source explain which figure is being used here.

Governor: Alaska — a large lead, but still below 50%

DDHQ’s November 5 tally at 16:55 EST puts Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) on 103,837 votes, or 49.13%, Bernadette Wilson (R) on 61,734, or 29.21%, and Dave Bronson (R) on 30,003, or 14.20%. Kreiss-Tomkins leads Wilson by 42,103 votes.

Why it remains unresolved: DDHQ estimates 69% counted, and the leading candidate is still below a first-choice majority. The later count and, if needed, ranked-choice transfers must establish the winner. A 20-point first-round lead over the nearest opponent is not the same as a majority of all valid votes.

Outlook: Kreiss-Tomkins is the clear favourite in the reported count and the checked Polymarket governor page displayed a rounded 100%. That rounded market display must not be written as a mathematical guarantee.

Where the uncertainty is real — and where it is mainly procedural

The smallest reported House margins are in North Carolina 5 (99 votes), North Carolina 3 (233), Tennessee 4 (280) and Minnesota 1 (321). Those margins identify where modest changes in the count could matter; they do not tell us which candidate will win the remaining ballots.

Alaska’s Senate contest combines a small first-choice gap with a substantial remaining count and possible preference transfers. Mississippi combines a narrow lead with outstanding eligible ballots and a ballot-handling dispute. Louisiana’s two seats require another election. Maine 2 has a concession alongside an announced tabulation. California’s same-party races can remain personally competitive without altering the congressional party balance.

The decisive information for a stronger forecast is the number, type and location of ballots still to be counted, plus actual transferable preferences where ranked-choice voting applies. Market prices provide a separate signal. This report deliberately does not manufacture missing ballot inventories or convert market confidence into a Votendi model.

For the national picture, follow Votendi’s 2026 U.S. midterm live-results coverage.

Methodology and sources: individual DDHQ race pages linked in every entry; AP/ABC reporting for cross-provider checks; state election offices for the cited Mississippi, Maine and Louisiana procedures; Polymarket event pages for displayed market prices. Only the leading candidates are shown in most House entries, so those rows are not complete candidate lists. “Uncalled”, “conceded”, “runoff”, “market settled” and “certified” describe different states. This is a timestamped research snapshot, not an automatically updating results feed.