Brazil’s presidential runoff took a decisive turn on Sunday, 25 October 2026, when Datafolha projected the re-election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The projection followed a dramatic reversal during official vote counting, as Lula moved ahead after Bolsonaro had briefly led.
Datafolha projects Lula’s victory — official certification is separate
At 20:46 Brasília time on 25 October, Datafolha projected a Lula victory on the basis of the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) count and the polling institute’s regional election-night model. The institute said that Bolsonaro could no longer close the gap under its statistical assessment. The projection would give Lula an unprecedented fourth presidential term, according to Folha de S.Paulo / Datafolha, with the call also reported by Reuters. This is a media projection, not a formal certification of the final result by the TSE.
The official TSE results feed subsequently showed a further rise in Lula’s lead. In a 21:11:20 Brasília-time snapshot on 25 October, the TSE reported 99.75% of polling sections processed, with Lula on 51.75% (64,060,216 votes) and Flávio Bolsonaro on 48.25% (59,719,617 votes). These are explicitly time-stamped partial official figures, not a continuously updated total. See Votendi’s live Brazil runoff coverage or the TSE results portal for the current tally and any official declaration.
How the election-night reversal unfolded
At 20:48:34 Brasília time on 25 October 2026, figures displayed on Votendi’s TSE-powered election dashboard put Lula on 51.09% of valid votes and Bolsonaro on 48.91%, with 75.24% of polling sections processed. This is a time-stamped historical snapshot, not the continuously updated result or a declaration of victory. For newer figures, see Votendi’s live Brazil runoff results.
Counting resumed after a disputed extension of voting hours
The vote count was temporarily paused after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling hours extended to 19:00 Brasília time following complaints of public-transport restrictions. The decision was subsequently clarified to apply only to polling stations still open. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court issued instructions consistent with that clarification.
Both major camps had raised concerns about voting conditions: Lula’s campaign highlighted public transport restrictions while Bolsonaro’s party sought extra time in some municipalities affected by heavy rain. The extraordinary timing of the decision created confusion after some polling stations had already closed. Agência Brasil and Associated Press reported on the interruption and resumption.
Why the early national lead changed
The TSE’s national percentages shifted as different parts of Brazil reported at different times. Later returns from the northeast, where Lula has historically performed strongly, contributed to the reversal after Bolsonaro led in an earlier phase of the count. The percentage of polling sections processed is not the same as the percentage of votes counted. Votendi therefore separates official TSE returns from media projections, opinion polls and prediction-market prices.
Prediction markets are not official results
Polymarket contract prices indicate trading activity and expectations about an outcome; they are not recorded votes or an official result. Election-night market movement should not be conflated with the TSE count.
Serbia also counted votes overnight
Serbia also held parliamentary elections on 25 October. Votendi is tracking its official RIK count separately from media seat projections. Follow Serbia’s election live results for current figures without confusing the two countries’ results.
Sources: Votendi election-night dashboard snapshot, 25–26 October 2026; Agência Brasil; TSE coverage via Agência Brasil; AP.
