Brazil’s presidential runoff is beginning to take shape after a first round that left Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva separated by less than two percentage points.
Bolsonaro finished the first round with 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for Lula. The second round is scheduled for October 25.
Former rivals move toward Bolsonaro
Two candidates who competed against Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema, have since announced support for him in the runoff. Their endorsements are part of a broader effort by Bolsonaro’s campaign to consolidate voters on the Brazilian right and centre-right after the first round.
Brazilian media have also reported discussions inside parties from the so-called centrão over whether to formally support Bolsonaro, remain neutral or allow regional branches to decide independently. Those negotiations matter politically, but they do not automatically determine how first-round voters will behave on October 25.
Lula changes the campaign after the first round
Lula’s campaign, meanwhile, is adjusting its strategy after finishing second. Reuters reported that the campaign is placing greater emphasis on younger voters, women, social programmes and digital communication while also trying to reach voters who supported eliminated candidates and people who abstained in the first round.
The campaign is also expected to increase Lula’s presence in radio interviews and social-media video as the contest narrows to two candidates.
The first major post-first-round poll is next
The most important new data point is likely to arrive on Thursday, October 8, when Datafolha is scheduled to publish a new national survey of the Lula–Bolsonaro runoff. The poll was conducted from October 6 to 8 with 2,520 respondents and a reported margin of error of two percentage points. It is registered with Brazil’s electoral authorities under BR-02949/2026.
Pre-election runoff polls are useful context, but Votendi will treat the new post-first-round surveys separately. Voter behaviour can change once the field narrows to two candidates and alliances begin to form.
What to watch
The next phase of the race will show how much support from eliminated candidates actually transfers to either finalist, whether turnout changes, and whether the first post-election polls confirm or challenge the narrow gap seen in the official result.
Votendi will update its Brazil tracker as new national polling is released.
Sources: Reuters — endorsements; Reuters — Lula campaign strategy; Folha/Datafolha — October 8 poll.
