Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is heading to a runoff after neither leading candidate won more than half of the valid vote in the first round.
With 99.99% of ballot boxes counted early Monday, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03%, while incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 45.16%, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The two candidates will meet again in the second round on October 25, 2026.
Official TSE results show Flávio Bolsonaro with 56,104,268 votes and Lula with 53,876,617. The first round recorded 125,272,513 valid votes.
The runoff starts with a close first-round gap
The first-round margin between the two candidates was just under two percentage points. That result does not determine how supporters of eliminated candidates will vote in the runoff, so the next phase of the campaign will focus heavily on voter transfers, turnout and persuasion among undecided or less firmly aligned voters.
Reuters reported that the campaign has been shaped by concerns including the cost of living, corruption, public security and the broader direction of Brazil’s economy. Those issues are likely to remain central as the contest narrows to two candidates.
Why Votendi is not publishing a runoff polling average yet
Several polls conducted before the first round tested a hypothetical Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff. Votendi will keep those surveys available as pre-runoff context, but they will not be mixed into the new post-first-round polling average.
The runoff polling average will begin once new national polls conducted after the October 4 first round are released. Until then, the site will show the confirmed first-round result and clearly label the runoff polling section as awaiting fresh data.
What to watch next
The main questions for the next three weeks are straightforward: which candidate can consolidate voters from eliminated first-round contenders, whether turnout changes in the second round, and whether the first post-election polls confirm or challenge the narrow gap seen in the official result.
Votendi will update its Brazil election hub as new polling arrives, while the first-round live results page will remain available as an archive of the October 4 count.
