Gerp — President - Runoff

SOURCE-REPORTED VALID VOTE SHARES: Flávio Bolsonaro 52%; Lula 48%. National telephone interviews of 2,400 voters on 22–24 Oct 2026; reported ±2 percentage point margin of error and 95.55% confidence. Survey paid by Gerp itself; TSE registration BR-09327/2026; published by Exame on 24 Oct at 18:00 Brasília time. Distinct from 19–21 Oct Gerp wave (BR-03835/2026; Flávio 53%, Lula 47%) and 14–16 Oct wave (BR-05187/2026). The reported 4-point gap equals the 2x margin-of-error range; interpret conservatively. Verify duplicate preview and candidate mapping.