Palver — President - Runoff

Original population label: Brazilian voters aged 16+ (national); approximate valid-vote share derived from rounded total-vote intention. DERIVED VALID-VOTE ESTIMATES, not pollster-reported valid-vote shares: Flavio Bolsonaro 50/99*100 = 50.5%; Lula 49/99*100 = 49.5% (rounded to one decimal). SOURCE-REPORTED TOTAL VOTE INTENTION: Flavio Bolsonaro 50%, Lula 49%, blank/null/would not vote 1%, undecided 0%. Valid-vote estimates are approximate because source percentages are rounded; do NOT present these as direct Palver valid-vote measurements. National online NON-PROBABILITY sample, self-selected respondents recruited via social-network ads with quotas and weighting; n=5,000 aged 16+, fieldwork 22-24 Oct 2026, published 24 Oct 2026. Reported margin +/-2.2 pp and confidence 95% do not eliminate non-probability recruitment bias. Own-funded survey by Palver, TSE registration BR-01794/2026. NEW WAVE, distinct from Palver 21 Oct (BR-04612/2026) and 15 Oct (BR-08028/2026). Source: UOL 24 Oct 2026; methodology independently corroborated by Exame and public registration. Existing Votendi Palver precedent uses candidate-only normalization for a previous wave. Check duplicate preview and candidate/contest matching before import.