Nexus — President - Runoff

Independently verified against CNN Brasil (24 Oct 2026, 17:45 Brasilia) and UOL (24 Oct 2026, 17:48 Brasilia). Reported valid-vote shares: Flavio Bolsonaro 50.5%, Lula 49.5%; not recalculated from rounded total-vote shares. Nexus survey commissioned by BTG Pactual: 2,000 telephone interviews of voters aged 16+, 23-24 Oct 2026, national coverage; TSE BR-08234/2026; margin of error +/-2.2 percentage points, 95% confidence. Candidates are statistically tied. Secondary confirmation: https://noticias.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2026/10/24/btgnexus-presidencial-segundo-turno-24-de-outubro.ghtm . Supersedes unverified pending CSV metadata after independent confirmation; figures unchanged.