CNT/MDA — President - Runoff

SOURCE-REPORTED VALID VOTE SHARES: Flavio Bolsonaro 50.7%, Lula 49.3% (statistical tie given +/-2.2 pp MOE). National Brazilian presidential runoff; fieldwork 21-23 Oct 2026; 2,032 interviews in 140 municipalities across all 27 federative units; in-person interviews at homes and public flow points; Brazilian voters aged 16+; confidence 95%. Commissioned by Confederacao Nacional do Transporte (CNT); TSE registration BR-02136/2026. Stimulated total-vote intention (NOT separately imported): Flavio 46.3%, Lula 45.0%, blank/null 5.8%, undecided/no answer 2.9%. Previous CNT/MDA wave released 16 Oct (different wave): valid votes Flavio 50.5%, Lula 49.5%. Verified against O POVO and Metropoles 24 Oct 2026. Duplicate preview required before import.