Ipespe

Ipespe — President - Runoff

20 Oct–22 Oct 2026 · Brazil

Voting intention

Results

Sample 1,500
1 Flávio Bolsonaro
50.5%result
2 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
49.5%result
PollsterIpespe
Fieldwork20 Oct–22 Oct 2026
PublishedOct 23, 2026

Notes

PUBLISHED VALID-VOTE SHARES: Flavio Bolsonaro 50.5%; Lula 49.5%. Poll conducted nationwide by phone on 20-22 Oct 2026, n=1,500, reported MOE +/-2.6 pp and confidence 95%; funded with institute own resources; TSE registration BR-04350/2026. Stimulated total-vote intention: Flavio 48%, Lula 47%, blank/null 3%, undecided/no response 2% (not separately imported). Valid-vote shares are source-reported, not recalculated. Different wave from Ipespe/Abrapel poll published 17 Oct (fieldwork 13-15 Oct, TSE BR-00223/2026). Source CNN Brasil 23 Oct 2026.