Gerp — President - Runoff

SOURCE-REPORTED VALID-VOTE SHARE (not total-vote intention): Flávio Bolsonaro 53%, Lula 47%. Stimulated total-vote intention: Flávio 50%, Lula 45%, neither 2%, undecided/no answer 2%; total-vote shares sum to 99% due to source rounding. Gerp Mercadologia telephone (GerpCati) national survey, n=2,400, fieldwork 19-21 Oct 2026, published 21 Oct 2026, MOE +/-2 pp, confidence reported as 95% (sources vary between 95% and 95.55%). Self-funded by Gerp. TSE registration BR-03835/2026. This is a separate wave from Gerp published 16 Oct 2026; verify importer preview for poll_key/registry_id duplicates before publishing.