Vox Brasil — President - Runoff

PUBLISHED VALID-VOTE SHARES: Lula 51%, Flavio Bolsonaro 49%; excludes blank/null and undecided voters. Original all-respondent shares reported separately: Lula 46.4%, Flavio Bolsonaro 44.6%. Do not mix the two bases or infer missing categories. Nationwide n=2,100; fieldwork 15-17 Oct 2026; published 18 Oct 2026 at 00:01 Brazil time; margin of error +/-2.15 pp, confidence 95%. Institute-funded (BRL 50,000); TSE BR-04332/2026. Personal interviews, as described in the announced methodology for this wave. Distinct from Vox Brasil fieldwork 5-7 Oct 2026 (BR-09623/2026). Sources: https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-eleicoes-2026/lula-tem-51-contra-49-de-flavio-em-votos-validos-diz-vox/ ; https://www.cartacapital.com.br/cartaexpressa/a-proxima-pesquisa-vox-brasil-que-ja-mostrou-lula-na-lideranca-numerica-do-2o-turno/