CNT/MDA — President - Runoff

PUBLISHED VALID-VOTE SHARES (not all-respondent percentages): Flavio Bolsonaro 50.5%, Lula 49.5%. Original stimulated all-respondent voting intention: Flavio Bolsonaro 46.8%, Lula 45.9%, blank/null 4.9%, undecided 2.4%. CNT/MDA 172nd round, in-person interviews in households and public flow points in 140 municipalities; 2,014 interviews, fieldwork 13-15 Oct 2026, published 16 Oct 2026; margin of error +/-2.2 percentage points, 95% confidence. TSE registry BR-00652/2026. Source: CNT press text republished by FETRANSUL; sample size 2,014 confirmed here and by Reuters, while some secondary coverage says 2,002. First CNT/MDA poll of runoff. Official CNT details: https://data.cnt.org.br/destaques/pesquisa-cnt-de-opiniao-172-rodada/