PoderData / Aya — President - Runoff

PUBLISHED VALID-VOTE SHARES: Flavio Bolsonaro 50%; Lula 50%. National PoderData/Aya phone poll using IVR/URA (recorded calls and keypad responses); 3,000 respondents in 644 municipalities across all 27 federation units; fieldwork 13-15 Oct 2026; published 16 Oct 2026; margin of error +/-1.8 percentage points; 95% confidence. Funded by PoderData (own resources); Aya Bancah is a distribution partner. Registered with TSE under BR-04258/2026. These are valid-vote percentages, not all-respondent voting intentions. Distinct from the prior PoderData/Aya poll (10-12 Oct; 51%-49%; BR-01209/2026).